https://itkservices3.com/posts.html Electricity markets analysis quarto-1.6.39 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/In the year 2026.html Coal generation share has fallen below 50% and evening peak prices are well down, but without new wind FIDs in NSW the machine will grind to a halt. Markets Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/In the year 2026.html Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Freight_forward.html I attended the Smart Energy/Boundless Freight Forwarding conference in the great hall at Parliament House yesterday. The audience was about 80% male. Policy Climate https://itkservices3.com/posts/Freight_forward.html Mon, 30 Mar 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_to_electricity.html Full electrification of Australia’s diesel fleet would redirect approximately $22 billion per year from petroleum imports to domestically produced electricity — equivalent to roughly 1% of GDP in import substitution. The associated CO2 reduction of 90 Mt (~15% of national emissions) represents a further welfare gain not captured in national accounts. At $176/t CO2, the AER shadow price represents around $15 bn in welfare gains. For scale, the NDIS costs roughly $45 bn per year. EVs Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_to_electricity.html Sat, 21 Mar 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Futures_jump.html My conclusion is that a rise in gas prices domestically — as international prices feed through — will lead to an increase in NSW spot electricity prices compared to pre-war expectations. But the extent will likely be minor if NSW coal continues to perform. Last year Mt Piper had a poor autumn. Markets https://itkservices3.com/posts/Futures_jump.html Thu, 12 Mar 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Longhaul.html Australia has a productivity opportunity by electrifying road freight on major corridors. The economic case has become outstandingly clear over the past couple of years and there are essentially no barriers. The payback period is 2-4 years depending on whether you’re replacing diesel trucks at end-of-life (2 years) or building the fleet from scratch (4 years). EVs https://itkservices3.com/posts/Longhaul.html Thu, 05 Mar 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/China_update.html The following plots show China’s electricity consumption by fuel since 2016 and over the past 12 months Global Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/China_update.html Thu, 26 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/global_electricity.html The IEA releases a .csv file of global electricity data every month. It lags a bit due to its comprehensive nature, the latest data runs to November 2025. I maintain a dashboard on my website that updates the data every couple of months and looks at the trends. Global https://itkservices3.com/posts/global_electricity.html Thu, 19 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Changing_shape.html The following plot shows NEM wide demand for the past year compared to the Feb 2022-23 period on a time-of-day basis and the time-of-day, region-share-of-demand-weighted, NEM-wide spot price for both years. Storage Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Changing_shape.html Tue, 10 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards.html <strong>“Of all follies there is none greater than wanting to make the world a better place.”</strong> — Molière Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards.html Sun, 08 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Battery_coal.html As discussed below, the volume impact is bigger than the price impact. There are a number of gross assumptions in the note below but I don’t think they detract from the message. Batteries are going to kill coal generation profits as well as gas. They may do more damage to coal than gas. Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Battery_coal.html Tue, 03 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Battery_coal 3.html As discussed below, the volume impact is bigger than the price impact. There are a number of gross assumptions in the note below but I don’t think they detract from the message. Batteries are going to kill coal generation profits as well as gas. They may do more damage to coal than gas. Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Battery_coal 3.html Tue, 03 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Coal_gen.html Global Roam is arguably the longest running and most trusted name in the supply of NEM data and certainly the best placed to provide the comprehensive DUID by DUID analysis of generator performance. Greenview have deep practical knowledge of what it takes to succeed in the Australian energy market. Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Coal_gen.html Mon, 02 Feb 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Powering data centres and smelters.html A summary of the scenario described in this note is: Demand Markets https://itkservices3.com/posts/Powering data centres and smelters.html Wed, 28 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/ev_policy_map.html There are lots of sound reasons for Australia to go hard on EVs, much harder than it currently does. But the number one reason that should appeal to Treasury is we get the equivalent of a new export industry. Replacing oil imports is pretty much the same as increasing exports. Why go through all the pain of having new LNG facilities and new coal mines when we can just kill oil imports and get a lot of votes in the process? Of the three main policy reviews this year—(i) safeguards, (ii) EV FBT concession and (iii) EV strategy—it’s the third that provides the biggest opportunity to improve Australia, to win votes, to increase the average Australian’s wealth via a stronger $, to decarbonise a significant sector, to reduce strategic risk and to increase public health. EVs Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/ev_policy_map.html Tue, 20 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards review.html Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism covers ~215 facilities emitting over 100,000 tonnes CO2-e annually, representing 28% of national emissions. Reformed in 2023, the scheme requires baselines to decline 4.9% per year through 2030. However, early data shows facilities are not decarbonising fast enough: covered emissions fell only 4.3% over two years while exceedance volumes surged 52%. ACCU surrenders have increased six-fold, indicating heavy reliance on offsets rather than on-site abatement. The 2026-27 statutory review will be critical, particularly given the gap between the indicative post-2030 decline rate (3.285%) and rates required to meet the 2035 NDC target (4.82-6.85%). Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards review.html Sun, 18 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Networks are under pressure.html I see few articles that make use of the RIN statements that the AER requires the distribution and transmission businesses to submit. To be fair the data has historically been submitted as spreadsheets and was hard to work with. Networks https://itkservices3.com/posts/Networks are under pressure.html Tue, 13 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Ocean heat change update.html Global ocean heat content increased by approximately 23 ZJ in 2025, roughly 40 times annual global primary energy consumption. Waters off Australia’s east coast are among the fastest-warming globally due to the intersection of expanding Hadley circulation, Pacific heat redistribution, and the East Australian Current. Climate https://itkservices3.com/posts/Ocean heat change update.html Tue, 13 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT Paul Bandarian (principal), David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/20251222_capacity_optimization_article 2/capacity_optimised.html Our analysis finds that electricity prices can be kept near today’s levels in a post-coal NEM under the current, energy-only market design, but require a system in which solar is structurally supported and batteries become the dominant price-forming technology. Alternatively, more gas might do the same job. Markets Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/20251222_capacity_optimization_article 2/capacity_optimised.html Mon, 22 Dec 2025 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/2026 - a big year for wind financing in NSW.html 2026 is a critical year where NSW must secure approximately $27 billion in financing across multiple wind projects to enable coal plant closures and meet decarbonization targets, but success hinges on overcoming three interconnected challenges: securing PPAs (where Snowy’s entry as a major buyer could be transformative), finding equity partners willing to commit despite the off-balance sheet model being fundamentally flawed for electricity generation, and navigating physical delivery constraints . While projects in the South West REZ may be technically superior to those in Orana due to better wind resources and flat terrain, the race for capital, PPAs, and legal approvals means only a handful of the dozen-plus projects will likely reach FID in 2026. The CIS scheme’s failure to create demand pull—unlike the old RET— means developer determination and execution the key drive. In truth it will be another six months before we will get much clarity. Generation Investment https://itkservices3.com/posts/2026 - a big year for wind financing in NSW.html Sun, 21 Dec 2025 14:00:00 GMT